High-Grade NPI Trading Sentiment Remains Weak, Stainless Steel Market Is Expected to Gradually Improve [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary]

1.15Nickel Morning Meeting Summary

Nickel Sulphate:

On January 14, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,423 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 26,050-26,950 yuan/mt, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous day.

Cost side, LME nickel prices rebounded slightly today to $15,860/mt (Ni contained), with spot cost support continuing to strengthen. Currently, the spot profit for producing nickel sulphate using MHP remains in a loss state, while the profit margin for producing nickel sulphate using high-grade nickel matte persists. Demand side, most precursor plants have basically completed their January nickel salt stocking, with a small portion still having restocking demand. Market inquiry activity was weak today. Supply side, nickel sulphate plants currently maintain low levels of finished product inventories, with tight supply. Overall, under the tight supply pattern, prices still have room for an upward trend.

NPI:

On January 14, SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 933.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), unchanged from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward, with weak production momentum among domestic smelters, and production is expected to decline. In Indonesia, with the release of some new capacity and the incremental output from some high-grade nickel matte switching to NPI production, high-grade NPI production is expected to increase slightly. Demand side, current stainless steel prices have stabilized and rebounded, but stocking demand for raw materials by stainless steel mills has been front-loaded, with most enterprises showing weak short-term purchasing demand. Additionally, top-tier enterprises have a high proportion of long-term contracts, and spot order external purchase volumes are relatively limited. Meanwhile, Indonesian nickel ore remains stable, and under cost support, high-grade NPI prices are expected to remain stable with a weak trend in the short term.

Stainless Steel:

On January 14, stainless steel futures market dropped slightly during the night session, and the electronic market opened lower in the morning but later rebounded. Spot prices continued to rise, and market expectations have gradually improved compared to early January. Downstream demand remained stable at low levels, with some traders engaging in restocking activities. Mainstream sentiment focused on destocking, and overall social inventories continued to decline. 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi was quoted at 12,900-13,200 yuan/mt, while 304 hot-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi was quoted at 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt. 316L cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi was quoted at 23,600-23,800 yuan/mt. 201J1 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi was quoted at 7,600-7,750 yuan/mt. 430 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi was quoted at 7,150-7,450 yuan/mt. At 10:30 a.m., the SHFE SS2503 contract price was 13,185 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums at -115 to -185 yuan/mt (spot trimmed edge = rough edge + 170 yuan/mt).